In my last blog, I mentioned how I was able to rationalise my decisions to convince myself I was doing the right thing. I appreciate we may not all think this way, but it was certainly true for me. I just didn't realise it until I was in a whole heap of trouble. I wanted to give a few real life of examples, from myself but also from people that have e-mailed me from my blog, which really accentuate just how much we can rationalise irrationality, but also how we can focus on short-term returns, rather than playing the 'long game'. When I'm running low on money, I focus on what the return from a bet will be relative to my starting amount - I've put in £1,000 this month and only have £200 left. I need to at least get back to £1,000. Please. I tell myself I'll stop when I get to £1,000. I made a mistake. I just need my money back. I'll therefore focus on the returns. Winning £50 off my £200 won't get me there. I'd need to at least double my money. If I can do that, I'll have more money which I can play slightly safer with - e.g. the more money I have, although the odds may be safer, I'll have a bigger return because I have more money to bet on it in the first place. But I need that 'double your money or more bet' to start with. Sounds irrational to me now - I'm more likely to lose all my money. The whole £200 trying to win £500, rather than having £250 with the safer bet. But I rationalised that irrationality whilst betting. And we all know that if I had reached that £1,000, I'd change the goalposts. I'd rationalise by saying 'hey, one more win and I'll take out my £1,000 and use what I have left to win more'. That never happens. I used to bet a lot on tennis. And when I say used to, I stopped 11 days ago, so not all that long ago really. Tennis games usually happened throughout the day, but didn't go too far into the evening. This caused me a problem whether I won or lost during the day. - if I won, I'd feel I had some 'free money' to use; and - if I lost, I'd feel I need to win back my money ASAP. Win back my money so I have something to use my money on tomorrow for the tennis. The whole 'I can play safer odds if I have more money' idea So, because I was so focused on winning my millions in one day (winning back my losses), I started to bet in the evening. And I started to bet on things I knew nothing about. Things that were pure speculation. I bet on Iraqi football matches. On basketball. On baseball. Ice hockey. Volleyball. Futsal. Badminton. Golf. Motor Sports. I didn't really know enough about any of these things. But as I rationalised above, I needed to keep betting whether I was up or down. I used to play the odds. Go for the 'safe bet'. I put an accumulator on all the 'safe' bets to get a slightly bigger return. I would win all bets of the accumulator, apart from the 'safest' of bets. That bet you might as well not have even put on because it made no difference at all to the overall return. On basketball, I lost a bet with odds of 1/150. A 0.6% return. £100 would return £100.60. 60p return. Albeit I actually bet over £5,000 on this match. I also bet over £5,000 on an Iraqi football match. The on-line markets for football usually give a naturally better return than for other spots. I used to be on tennis, especially the men in open's, because they were more consistent with their performances. Football can be affected more-so by a bad decision, a bit of luck, a harsh red card, one moment of magic, and so forth. So at odds of 2/5, I was going with the clear favourite to win the match. I would win back around £2,000 on top of my stake. My team went on to lose 4-0. When you go through a losing streak, you further rationalise riskier bets, and in the very short-term you end up spiralling out of control. In this moment it's very easy to lose all of your money, and all of your possessions. My advice would be to recognise when you're doing this, and stop. How we all do that, I have no idea. I haven't managed that yet. Maybe it's not possible....not possible unless you stop gambling completely, which is now what I'm striving for. It appears I'm not alone in my way of thinking. One guy messaged me who had saved for a house deposit, but due to the purchase falling through, was sat on a large sum of cash. He thought he could double this through gambling. After some losses, he bet his last £2,000 on a basketball match he knew nothing about. So caught up in the moment, he was able to rationalise why betting on a match he knew nothing about was a good idea. He lost the bet. Has anyone else found themselves betting on something they knew nothing about, or betting on long odds, because at the time they've felt like they HAD to do it, even though on reflection they knew it was the wrong thing to do? This can be applied to both winning and losing. In hindsight, I've put some crazy bets on that I've won, but I know that I only did this through rationalising an irrational decision. Let me know your thoughts below: Leave a Reply. |
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